Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. Mathematician Professor John Littlewood of Cambridge University defined a miracle as an event happening with a frequency of one in a million. The chances that they would then get knocked up? Lets confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10 of the worlds population twenty years go (one tenth of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean, with exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. And lets say the fly decides to bring the ENTIRE MOON back to the Earth, one grain of sand at a time. Its so unlikely, its almost impossible that youre here and taking a breath right now. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? The learned professor was actually pulling everyones legs, but Littlewoods Law has been conscripted as proof of a number of strange theories. Some of the numbers are approximations, but generally they are on the conservative side. On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. Mirabile visu (Wondrous to behold)! There are only slightly more than 500 billionaires in America, making your odds of becoming one roughly one in 578,508. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Even if they couldn't read them yet. He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. dr ali binazir odds of being born - sindicaturarosarito.gob.mx There is no reason not to be bold, to throw yourself at life with vigor every single day. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. Dr. Ali Binazir took it further. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. Regardless of your skin color, country of origin, body size, religion, gender, or view point, WE ALREADY MADE IT HERE. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Blog Home Uncategorized dr ali binazir odds of being born. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. In fact, He has been preparing a place for each of us in the kingdom, from before the creation of the world. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. First, lets talk about the probability of your parents meeting. As Borel pointed out such an event was so improbable as to be impossible. One of the talks was by Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author and life coach with a syndicated radio show. dr ali binazir odds of being born - dura-fog.com No one else has had a soul like mine, no one will have a soul like it. If there is only one outcome then the probability is 1/1=1. alex mendez political party; land for sale bundaberg repossessed houses; how does macbeth and banquo's relationship change; skyking richard russell Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of this precious incarnation. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. These links dont impose any extra cost on you, and they help support the free content I provide here. Dr. Ali Binazir Has 10 Years + Experience As A Author. dr ali binazir odds of being born Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. This basically ZERO CHANCE of BEING BORN shows me that WE ALL DESERVE having an EQUAL PLACE on Earth! They look like this , or this, and have to be avoided at all costs. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Borels Law says such a number means something is impossible, and yet, its not. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 10. Why? Every beginning Is only a sequel, after all, and the book of events is always open halfway through. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). To say that someone or something is contingent is to say that the existence of same is not inevitable but rather can only come about based on a number of previous things being true in a chain of being or causality. This content is accurate and true to the best of the authors knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? I think that was exactly Msgr. How do you deal with a confirmed bachelor?, 9 Reasons Why Men Lose Interest and What You Can Do About It. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough Course- Work With Me. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. In other words, when seen in the aggregate, that probability is simply stating that it is very hard to predict _who_ will exist and not that someone will. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? They say that it is impossible for human life to exist without divine intervention. He looked at the amount of water in the oceans, compared to the size of a life-preserver. In 1913, at the roulette wheel at the Casino de Monte-Carlo, the ball dropped into a black slot 26 times in succession. Step 2. Its the probability of 2 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. A lovely day to you. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. xx, Lets be social! So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Which ones bigger? You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. The number of atoms in the known universe is estimated at 1080. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 10 2,685,000. Do you know the odds of being alive? Step 1. You can start the series by clicking HERE. You have the rarest of chances in the universe to experience what life feels like. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. Now take whats left and live it properly. Marcus Aurelius. Ensure you visit this website and get the right details and names that fits your babies. Now things start getting interesting. God has always known us, intended us, loved us, and planned for us. You are wonderfully and fearfully made, and God has done a marvelous thing. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? He assumes each person is alert and awake for eight hours a day (this allows for downtime watching reality TV shows when the human brain is entirely inactive). So I got curious: are either of these numbers correct? The number of atoms making up the earth is about 1050. He calculated that an average human could expect to experience such an occurrence once every 35 days. First, let's talk about the probability of your parents meeting. Are You Totally Improbable Or Totally Inevitable? The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. You are not here by luck; you are here by the grace and will of God. The Zen philosopher, Basho, once wrote, A flute with no holes, is not a flute. We might not all like the cards we were dealt in life, but it is our choice to play what weve been given or to go on blaming our lot which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. So, it seems fair to say that there are an infinite number of possibilities of any event happening not matter how remote the chance. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. He was a funny guy. Ty Webb, Caddyshack, which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. By that definition, Ive just proven that you are a miracle. By all accounts, you shouldnt even be here. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. Step 2. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. dr ali binazir odds of being born - thlf.us Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. You are also agreeing to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. You asked for more Brain Yoga, so here are the upcoming classes. Yes, youre here all right, and math can barely account for your existence, so tiny are the odds; but God has overseen every detail and knew you long before you were born. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. But lets think about this some more. mitchell henry obituary; housing authority rome, ga; tom brady personality traits; can you drive from glacier national park to banff; why did they replace bertha in fred Post your query OR Review in below comment box. I would caution anyone from drawing a religiously-minded conclusion from these probabilities and heres why: While the probability of any one of us existing is very low, the probability that 350 million humans existing in the United States is very high. Part of HuffPost Wellness. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. Youre not just one in a million, youre one in a 102,685,000. You Are a Miracle, 1 in 400 Quadrillion or more - LinkedIn Step 1. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Gather your loved ones around and give props to your incredibly resilient and badass survivor ancestors, while you explode your gender revel confetti poppers. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis. Astronomers estimate that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the observable Universe. Happiness Engineering with Dr Ali Binazir Are they gross exaggerations? Are You a Miracle? On the Probability of Your Being Born I hope you use your chance well. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. The first single-cell organism emerging from an inanimate chemical soup is not something that could have happened by chance. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). By that definition, Ive just shown that you are a miracle, he wrote. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million dollar lottery 9 times over your life again than you would have being born. The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. The probability of this happening is 635,013,559,600 to one against. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Our own galaxy, the Milky Way, has as many as 400 billion stars in it and at least 100 billion planets. He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. Something was dropped and then picked up. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? But, once we are born, we have an incredible opportunity to create our future . That is the reason the majority dislike games, lotto, and sports beting. Step 3. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Click the image to enlarge it and check their numbers: Of course, there are poets who argue exactly the opposite: that each of us is fated to exist, that there is a plan, and that all of us are expected. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. Because the fact that your baby to be is a miracle is not just a religious ideaits science. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. Are You a Miracle? One night, perhaps, the same dream, grown hazy by morning. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Same to all of us. Just starting from your parents, the chance of them meeting and creating you is astronomically slim. Thats just the observable Universe; we havent the faintest idea what is beyond what we can detect with our instruments. Love and the empowered woman: Dr. Ali Binazir at TEDxFiDiWomen You exist, that is the only probable outcome, so the probability of you being you is 1. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Ali Binazir (Author of The Tao Of Dating) - Goodreads This button displays the currently selected search type. If you need to flag this entry as abusive. Thus, my existence depends on a vast number of meetings going just right; if they hadnt I would never have been born. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. Multply the volume of New Jerusalem by 77. If you assume the current population is 1% of the history of humanity, the total number of combinations increases to 1.1 x 10^39. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! Dr. Binazir puts it this way: "It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. In a 2011 HuffPost article, he set about calculating the likelihood of each of us being born. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. He goes further back to look at the probability of all your ancestors successfully mating, and of all the right sperm meeting all the right eggs to make each one of those ancestors. Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? Fortunes were lost as players bet huge amounts on red in the erroneous belief that the law of probabilities dictated the ball would not drop on black again. In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). Are they gross exaggerations? Essentially, what Borel said was that any event with a honking big (a technical term used by mathematicians) level of improbability would never happen. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, The answer is five hundred bazillion squintillion, we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 341 million km (131.6 million square miles). dr ali binazir odds of being bornmartin et julien bouchet biathlon. 2019 Ali Binazir, M.D., M.Phil, All Rights Reserved. The analogy given by Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of YOU being born is here: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. As you aptly point out, many persons losts lots of money at the roulette because they quests mathematically accurate. If you assume there are 3 billion women and 3 billion men alive today, that means 3 x 10^14 eggs and 3.6 x 10^22 sperm are currently on the planet, for a total of 1.1 x 10^37 possible pairings. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Now before you start telling your parents that they could have traded any of your younger siblings for the lottery winnings, your siblings are miracles too! Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. But when we take it back throughout all the unbroken generations of life, then to the formation of the earth, then the development of the galaxy, then the universe being created from the Big Bang, your odds have now been reduced to 1 in 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the waterin the middle of that life preserver. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. There were doorknobs and doorbells where one touch had covered another beforehand. Dr. He looked at the odds of your parents meeting, given how many men and women there are on Earth and how many people of the opposite sex your mother and father would have met in their first 25 years of life. So lets say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million: Probability of boy meeting girl: 1 in 20,000. Scott and Janice Huse, in their 1997 book The Collapse of Evolution, state that It is very significant to note that mathematicians generally consider that any event with a probability of one chance [in] 10^50 as having a zero probability (i.e. But let's think about this some more. Those who say Charles Darwins concept of evolution is hogwash gleefully seize on Borels Law to support their arguments. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." Theologically, of course, we are no accident; we do not exist by happenstance. This alone should boost any lingering low self-esteem quite a bit. Rich E Cunningham from Ontario, Canada on May 14, 2020: Interesting article, guess we are lucky to be here! Think of how strong our ancestors had to be to allow us to eat a sandwich or sing Happy Birthday. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. A rational approach acknowledges that incredibly low probabilities is not the same as zero probability. We were not born by accident given the odds calculated by scientists showing the odds of you being born are at least 1 in 400 trillion IF NOT 1 in 400 quadrillion and most likely 1 in 10.2,640,000. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. I would call that a personal relationship with God. Thats 150,000 generations. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? Visions in Lent: Family Life As a Seen in a Rock Tumbler. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. So whats the probability of your existing? You are living a life you should mathematically not have ever had. The good news is that the fee is only $10 per class 10-20x cheaper than therapy, and probably more effective. Borel's Law of Probability - Owlcation or one in 6.821014, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Lets say a life preservers hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside, which we will conveniently round to 0.5 square meters. Based on the data from the CDC . decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. What it took to get us all here, in this time, together, seems too precious to let pass us by without open hearts. Binazir decided to test the Buddhist understanding against the modern scientific understanding. To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Please pass this post along. Who knows, maybe the ball that vanished into childhood's thicket? Not only has He always known us; he has known everything each of us would do, for every one of our days has been written in His book before one of them ever came to be. Moreover, the second shot would not necessary run into the red. You have lived your life. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. -- from "Love at First Sight", Wislawa Szymborska, The End and The Beginning, 1993.
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